The Puzzle A nearly omniscient being is going to put money in two boxes on Wednesday. No one will touch the boxes after that. Suppose you KNOW that the nearly omniscient being is 99% accurate in predicting whether the person on Thursday will open both boxes or just one box. The omniscient being will make a prediction on Wednesday and then place money in the boxes based on the prediction. Here's is what the nearly omniscient being (hereafter NOB) will do.
BOX A
NOB will place $1,000 in Box A no matter what the being predicts.
BOX B
NOB will place $1,000,000 in Box B only if the being predicts that you will only take Box B. NOB will leave Box B Empty if NOB predics that you will take both.
It's now Thursday. You may take either of the boxes you wish. You may also take both. What should you do?
Here are the camps divided into what people typically think you should do…
One boxers say…
Take Box B. Somehow, you’re decision will cost you $1,000,000 if you do anything else.
Two boxers say…
Come on…the money has already been put in the box. Surely, your decision NOW won’t affect anything. The practically rational thing to do is take both boxes…
My Favorite Response: I'm a ONE-BOXER
(I'm told William Lane Craig offers roughly this response...)
Here is my case for being a one-boxer. Our evidence RIGHT NOW might point to the fact that there is no way that our decision on Thursday affects the contents of the box. That’s why some have the intuition to be two boxers. However, if we imagine ourselves in a scenario where we know a person has been 99% accurate in predicting, we would have to ask what the best explanation of that phenomena is. You might think if you were in such a far fetched scenario that you would have some empirical evidence for a range of far fetched hypotheses that do entail your decision on Thursday affects the being decision on Wednesday. Here are two…
ETERNAL BEING – Perhaps the NOB has reliable immediate access to all truths past, present, and future. NOB could be outside of time or get reports from something that is outside of time. NOB (or at least NOB's source of information) sees me make my choice on Thursday when I do it, and bases his decision on that choice.
TIME TRAVELING BEING – NOB can time travel and at least glance into the future. The being bases his Wednesday decision on what he sees me do on Thursday.
In both cases, we have conceivable scenarios in which what I decide on Thursday has some direct causal bearing on the past. I’m not saying that these are even remote possibilities for something that could happen in the actual world. All I am saying is the following conditional is true.
(A) If you were in a scenario where you KNEW a nearly omniscient being was 99% accurate in determining what your future actions would be, then the hypothesis that your actions in the future affect what the being does in the past would be a LIVE OPTION.
Objection One: These aren’t plausible theses.
Response. It might not be plausible to suppose these are actually true, but they would certainly be live options if you knew there was a being with this remarkable ability. When we imagine we are in possible scenarios where our knowledge is radically different from the actual world, we have to make sure shift what our total evidence is. Given that they are live options in the scenario, you shouldn’t act as if your decision on Thursday has no impact on the contents of the box.
Objection Two: there would be better explanations of the beings ability than that it was eternal or that it time traveled…The being could be a really good cognitive psychologist with accurate brain reading software, and it could be that whenever brains of a certain arrangement play the game, they choose both. Whenever they do not exhibit that arrangement they choose one box.
Response. There might be a better explanations, but the probability of TIME-TRAVELER and ETERNAL BEING alternatives might be sufficiently high that you shouldn’t rule them out as a possibility when making practical decisions…You may not be justified in believing that the being was ETERNAL or TIME-TRAVELLER. I’m just saying it would be enough of a live option and the consequences so severe that it’s not rational to risk that one of these explanations in not true.
I’m told…that this is roughly what William Lane Craig has said in response to the problem. I’m wondering if anyone is aware of any responses to this solution?
Labels: philosophy